No, I don't think a mainstream Democrat should challenge Joe Biden

But, if the opportunity presented, I would welcome a different nominee.

I want to clarify my thinking about replacing Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee, which is something I’ve vocally supported on the app-formerly-known-as-Twitter for a long time. I’ll start with some transparency: I did not want Joe Biden to be the 2020 nominee; he doesn’t strike me as a particularly nice man; his conservative policy preferences on most issues are antithetical to my own; I worry about his personal capacity to campaign and govern at this stage of his life; and I believe there is a serious chance his candidacy will result in Donald Trump returning to the White House. Having said all that, as a progressive independent, I do think Biden has been a much better president than Trump and wouldn’t want to see a mainstream Democrat challenge him and potentially make Trump’s re-election even more likely. The risk is too great.

That doesn’t mean there aren’t situations where Joe Biden is replaced, however.

First, there’s the potential that he is physically unable to run against Trump in 2024. In November, Biden will turn 81 and anything could happen between now and next year’s presidential election. (The same could be said of Trump!)

Second, and this follows from the aforementioned, it’s certainly possible that Biden — who signaled in 2019 he would only serve one term — could decide that his candidacy is no longer in the interest of the Democratic Party and country. (I would not be opposed to anyone quietly making this argument to Biden.) Maybe he has a particularly bad stumble or health scare with awful optics for his future in politics. Or polling starts to suggest Electoral College problems, which could potentially lead to a 2016 repeat. Who knows? It’s not outside the realm of possibility that Biden voluntarily withdraws from the race.

(The second point raises the issue of what would happen with Kamala Harris if Biden stepped aside. Due to her unpopularity and the fact she would almost certainly lose to Trump, I view it as unthinkable that Democrats would rally around her as an alternative. Perhaps she could serve as attorney general for a new Democratic president?)

These are the situations I’m thinking about when I discuss potential replacements for Biden. In the absence of him stepping aside, I don’t think he should be challenged by mainstream Democrats for the nomination. But, if it were to happen — by necessity or choice — I believe Jared Polis, Gretchen Whitmer, Ned Lamont, Cory Booker, Elizabeth Warren, and a variety of other Democrats could contribute to a vibrant primary, unlike anything the Democratic Party has had since 2008.