“Don’t compare me to the Almighty. Compare me to the alternative.”
Democrats may want to consider taking Joe Biden at his word.
The first New York Times poll of the 2024 election cycle is out and things aren’t looking so hot for President Biden. Despite indictment after indictment after indictment, former President Donald J. Trump’s support is solid. Biden and Trump are tied at 43% in the Times/Siena poll with 14% undecided.
While it’s still early, a leading political scientist and prominent progressive journalist are sounding the alarm about the potential for Trump to beat Biden in the Electoral College.
University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato, a political scientist famous for his “crystal ball” analysis Web site, tweeted this morning that the tie “almost certainly means a Trump majority in the Electoral College” and should send a message to Democrats about “overconfidence.”
And if you want to find “Dem overconfidence,” look no further than the prolific Twitter feed of Ronald Klain, Biden’s former chief of staff and closest confidante.
Sabato’s concern was echoed by Eric Levitz, a savvy progressive journalist at New York Magazine.
While it is, of course, still very early and the large percentage of undecided voters could easily help Biden secure re-election, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to pause and reflect on the viability of his campaign. Voters continue to express significant negativity about both Biden himself and his management of the economy. Weeks into the “Bidenomics” messaging campaign, 50% of voters surveyed who’ve heard some or a lot about the term said they associate it with “higher inflation.” Yikes.
When discussing his shortcomings as a candidate, Biden will often share an expression from his father: “Don’t compare me to the Almighty. Compare me to the alternative.” Let’s take Biden at his word and consider alternatives.
Jared Polis, Gretchen Whitmer, Cory Booker, Gina Raimondo, Ned Lamont, and a variety of other popular Democrats, with long records of success in state and national politics, all come to mind. It’s the beginning of August and there’s plenty of time for a competitive primary — plenty of time for “alternative” nominees to introduce themselves to the country.
As I wrote last week, I do not think a mainstream Democrat should primary Biden, but if he could be convinced to step aside, I believe it would be a good thing for the Democratic Party and the nation. In my view, given his age and dated politics, Biden is a high-risk, low-reward nominee. If Trump — truly an existential threat to our democracy — is the GOP nominee, it is scary to think of a nearly 82-year-old Biden having a Mitch McConnell moment a few weeks before the election. If Trump isn’t the nominee for whatever reason, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis would almost certainly take his place and perform very strongly against Biden in key swing states.
Let’s simply keep an open mind about replacing Biden, because right now the choice is not just between him and the Almighty.