Replacing Joe Biden Gives Democrats a Major Advantage in 2028
Another Democratic nominee would be able to serve two terms.
It’s a day of the week that ends in y so there’s another awful poll reflecting public discontent with President Biden and the economy:
In one notable shift since late last year, most now say they trust Republicans in Congress (54%) over Biden (45%) to deal with the major issues facing the country today. There’s a steep decline in trust for Biden among people of color who do not have college degrees (from 64% who trusted Biden more then to 49% now). Others hold largely similar views now as they did in December.
When asked which issue is the most important facing the country today, economic concerns continue to dominate, with 44% citing an economy-related issue such as the cost of living or inflation (19%); the economy generally (16%); or poverty, finances and money (3%). No other single issue was named by more than 10% of Americans.
Notably, this poll reveals that Americans trust congressional Republicans more than Biden on the economy — a very bad sign for his re-election campaign. Joe Biden is simply a weak nominee and the White House’s “Bidenomics” push isn’t convincing Americans to feel better about his economic management.
Even Barack Obama seems worried. The Washington Post reported yesterday that, at a lunch last month, the former president reminded Biden of “Trump’s political strengths” and expressed concern that “Trump could be a more formidable candidate than many Democrats realize.” While Obama apparently “made it clear his concerns were not about Biden’s political abilities, but rather a recognition of Trump’s iron grip on the Republican Party,” I think it’s fairly obvious that Obama’s intervention stemmed from anxiety about Biden’s campaign. He wasn’t going to say that to Biden’s face, however. (Biden struggles with accepting criticism.)
So where does Joe Biden stand as a Democratic nominee right now?
He is tied with Donald Trump, which means a likely Electoral College loss.
Voters blame him for inflation and what they perceive as a “struggling” and “uncertain” economy.
The most loyal Democratic Party voters — who revived his awful primary campaign and were essential to his victory over Trump — are disappointed with his performance in office.
Voters are seriously concerned about Biden’s age and personal capacity, which the White House recognizes is a major problem. Indeed, in 2019, a leading Democratic strategist said it would be “crazy” for Biden to pursue a second term.
That said, Biden is the incumbent, which has historically proven to be a major advantage, and is something that another Democrat wouldn’t have. Though, if Donald Trump is the GOP nominee, and he almost surely will be, the 2024 election will effectively be a unique contest between two “incumbents.”
The difficult question to ask, however, is whether the incumbency advantage — as powerful as it is — can compensate for Biden’s advanced age (he’ll turn 82 just weeks after the presidential election!), unpopularity, and perceived mismanagement of the economy and responsibility for brutal inflation. If not, it’s worth thinking about pressuring Biden to step aside. (Pressure, it seems, can work, given he just recognized his missing granddaughter.)
Would it be all bad news if Biden steps aside and Democrats have to campaign for the presidency without an incumbent? Probably not. In addition to satisfying the long-standing demand of a majority of Americans that Biden not run again, a new Democratic nominee — selected during a competitive primary process unlike anything the party has enjoyed since 2008 — would, if elected, benefit from the incumbency advantage in 2028.
Imagine entering the 2028 presidential election with a youthful, energetic, and (if all goes well) popular Democratic president who has had four years of non-Covid governance to address major challenges — health care, education, and housing — while inspiring confidence in the United States abroad, something that is sorely lacking right now despite Biden’s half-hearted “America is back!” messaging. And that Democrat would be running in 2028 against a non-incumbent Republican.
Jared Polis? Maybe Cory Booker. What about Gretchen Whitmer? Democrats should be very careful about getting hung up on losing the incumbency advantage if Biden steps aside. It’s a bummer, but Biden is an extraordinarily weak incumbent, and you get a pretty big reward in 2028.