Replacing Joe Biden is an Opportunity to Shift the Agenda from Democracy to the Cost-of-Living Crisis and American Welfare

Unburdened by what has been.

Joe Biden’s biggest problem is obviously the perception that he lacks the personal capacity to serve a second term — but his other major problem is that voters apparently blame him for inflation and the problematic economy, two policy areas that they prioritize for action over the democracy theme. If (when?) Biden steps aside for Kamala Harris or a mini-primary process, a golden opportunity presents for Democrats, unburdened by what has been, to give voters what they want — more attention to the cost-of-living crisis and economy, and less of a focus on Trump as a threat to democratic norms.

At the moment, Biden’s campaign is centered on the democracy theme, which senior adviser Mike Donilon seems to believe is the winning approach:

By November, he predicted, “the focus will become overwhelming on democracy. I think the biggest images in people’s minds are going to be of January 6th.”

The problem, of course, is that voters say they are far more concerned about inflation, the economy, immigration, and wars than January 6th — and, when asked who they trust more to handle those issues, they say Donald Trump. This likely stems in part from the fact that Trump has actually been talking about these issues over the past year while Biden still lacks a concrete policy agenda for a second term. About a month ago, the campaign finally added an “issues” page to his barren website, but it lacks detail and primarily discusses problems and past accomplishments.¹

The cost-of-living crisis is crushing Americans and voters are pissed.

Replacing Biden therefore allows Democrats to address the cognitive capacity and policy problems at the same time. A new nominee, ideally with more distance from his unpopular presidency than Kamala Harris, will be able to celebrate his successes, but also acknowledge the genuine pain of the past few years. They can campaign as both a part of and apart from the Biden years. If the new nominee needs some ideas, I’d suggest they look at Dean Phillips’ detailed campaign agenda, which reminded me a bit of the (pretty successful!) Danish Social Democrats. To be a bit more concrete:

• Acknowledge the cost-of-living crisis — perhaps even apologize for instances where Democrats dismissed the harms of inflation in the past — and propose policies (below) to address it in the short-term and long-term

• Medicare for All (defined as a true universal health care system, but open to private providers and a potential role for insurers)

• Attention to other pieces of the social contract where the United States falls short compared to other rich countries (e.g. child care, child benefit payments, long-term care, paid leave, etc.)

• Pull-all-levers affordable housing policy to reduce rents and the cost of home ownership (e.g. zoning and construction reforms to increase supply, social housing, Airbnb restrictions, private equity restrictions, foreign non-resident owner restrictions or punitive taxation, sensible rent stabilization laws, renters bill of rights, etc.)

• Produce and implement a national connectivity plan to restore and improve transport links (i.e. more affordable and more frequent) between small towns, cities, and regions of our huge federal republic

• Student debt relief alongside structural reforms to student lending and higher education finance

• Restore abortion rights in all 50 states and U.S. territories

• A post-pandemic recovery plan for kids harmed by extended school closures and reduced social services

• Celebrate the dynamism of a liberal labor market, but with expanded support for those moving between jobs (i.e. Nordic flexicurity)

• Peace and security in our towns and cities with a national anti-social behavior strategy and more effective policing to reduce violent crime

• Criminal justice reforms to reduce police brutality and mass incarceration, including holding states accountable for responsible policing and more humane conditions in jails and prisons

• Restore order at the southern border with reforms to asylum law, humane enforcement, a multi-national crackdown on human traffickers at the Darién Gap, and significant cooperation with Mexican and Central American governments

• Expand legal immigration, with a special emphasis on regularization of non-criminal irregular migrants already in the U.S. and expanded labor mobility for Mexican, Central American, Caribbean, and Canadian citizens

• Strong support for NATO and other U.S. allies alongside recognition that preserving global peace is a “team sport” with allies expected to improve their own defense postures

• A plan for shared North American prosperity, security, and integration

• Promoting democratic norms and the rule of law at the federal, state, and local levels

Obviously, that’s a laundry list of ideas, but you can’t have a dream come true if you don’t have a dream, and there is a logic to the list — putting the welfare and well-being of Americans at the heart of the Democratic nominee’s campaign. If this sounds a bit like a center-left or progressive response to MAGA, well, that’s kind of the point. Biden’s dysfunctional campaign was something of a “Hillary 2016 retread” insofar as it primarily focused on attacking Trump instead of proposing a transformative policy agenda to meet the unmet needs of long-suffering Americans. That’s not good enough for Americans — and the proof is in the polling.

If (when?) Biden steps aside, Democrats can not only put a younger face in front of voters, but more appealing ideas. This is an opportunity that I hope the party won’t squander.

1. Yes, I’m basically ignoring Biden’s recently announced “100-day” proposal, because it was just a chaotic, last-ditch effort to salvage his doomed campaign.