Five Thoughts on Joe Biden Stepping Aside
Better late than never.
Following President Joe Biden’s surprise announcement that he’s dropping out of the race this afternoon, I want to share five thoughts regarding the decision.
First, I don’t think Biden should have ever run for reelection. I said this in spring 2023 before his underwhelming virtual campaign launch with a YouTube video. (We now know that his aides were likely afraid of him screwing up a live speech — launching the campaign online with a video was a huge tell.) At the time he announced his reelection bid without the support of a majority of rank-and-file Democrats, I saw an extremely unpopular incumbent who had signaled he would serve only one term, was struggling with public speaking, and was personally blamed for a brutal inflation crisis. If Biden had decided a single term was enough last spring, the Democratic Party would now be confidently entering the general election season with a strong Democratic nominee enjoying a strong small-d democratic mandate. I suspect that many of the people lavishing public praise on Biden today privately share my frustration.
Second, after launching a dysfunctional campaign without any concrete policy agenda, Biden took too long to step aside once it became pretty clear he was going to hand the White House back to Donald Trump if he remained in the race. As someone who supported Dean Phillips’ commendable effort to promote a competitive primary process, I think the ideal window for Biden to step aside was between September 2023 and February 2024. When Ezra Klein started calling for the president to end his campaign — and both Barack Obama and The Economist were also ringing alarm bells — it was obviously time. By February, there was also compelling evidence that the White House was hiding Biden’s cognitive decline. The president needed a notecard to talk to Ryan Seacrest on New Year’s Eve and declined a valuable Super Bowl interview with the ridiculous excuse that he wanted to keep politics out of the game.
Third, because Biden took so long to read the writing on the wall, the new Democratic nominee will have just a few months to get organized and aggressively campaign before early voting begins in some states. There’s even the potential that Republicans will use lawsuits in an attempt to disrupt the democratic Democratic process. This means the likelihood of a second Trump term is higher than it would be had Biden never announced a reelection campaign or ended his bid much earlier. And if the new nominee fails to win, Biden’s legacy will be tarnished as analysts inevitably blame his reluctance to pass the torch for the November outcome.
Fourth, as much as it pains me to write this — I’m a center-left guy who dreams of universal health care, free child care, mandatory paid vacation, and a borderless North America — Donald Trump is probably going to win. Likely nominee Vice President Kamala Harris is an energetic speaker whose joie de vivre belies her age, but is deeply unpopular and has a weak electoral record. With the odds against her, how will she attract a strong running mate? If you’re Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer, or Andy Beshear, do you want to be on the ticket that has a fairly high chance of owning Trump’s return to the White House? I agree with Nancy Pelosi, Dean Phillips, and Barack Obama that some kind of open nomination or “mini-primary process” will put the future nominee in the strongest possible position. A coronation of Harris would be perceived by many as lacking democratic legitimacy, and therefore provide Trump with valuable ammunition to sow doubt about the ticket with undecided voters.
Fifth, whoever the nominee is should abandon Joe Biden’s misguided campaign focus on January 6th and Donald Trump as a threat to democracy. Those are important themes worthy of discussion, but the candidate should focus most of their time articulating a strong plan to address the cost-of-living crisis, restore abortion rights, and promote peace at home, the border, and abroad. In order to avoid repeating Hillary’s 2016 mistake, Democrats have to give voters something to vote for, not just against.
Quite a day for the United States.